What You See vs. How You Die

A second buy-side QoE on the same deal. Nine material risks the first provider missed — each one large enough to bankrupt the buyer. Below the surface of every “simple business” is the iceberg that sinks the ship.

Elliott Holland · The $4M Mistake Most Business Buyers Make

Variant 4 · The Ledger

Two columns. One deal. A different ending.

What You See

How You Die

1

“It’s a simple HVAC business. Bank statements look fine. I don’t really need a full QoE.”

Confirmation bias dressed up as due diligence. ‘Simple’ is what every first-time searcher tells themselves before signing personal guarantees on someone else’s lies.

2

The seller is paying half the QoE if I use his guy. Free money.”

On a $4M deal, the seller just bought himself a QoE provider who can’t say no. Half the fee in exchange for a writeup that calls every iceberg an ice cube.

3

“They don’t track monthly Work in Progress — not a big deal.”
10 projects reported 90% complete are actually 30–40% complete. Day one, you fund 70% of the materials and your $200K working capital line is gone. EBITDA and working capital both off by double digits.

4

“Their inventory controls are weak, but it’s a small business — fine.”

20 years of mystery inventory gets booked as current and good. Cost of goods sold becomes fiction, gross margin is overstated, and you can’t tell whether 40% or 60% of any project was raw material. The hull leaks the moment you take the helm.

5

“The seller carved out a separate entity in another end-market — standard.”

The day after close, that ‘other’ entity pivots into your end-market. Your non-compete protects exactly what was carved out. You sue in his home county, in front of judges he voted for. You bought $4M of revenue he’s now competing for.

Don't bet your family's future on a guy who only sees above the water.

If you’ve made it this far, you already know the answer.

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